Bitget exchange released the six-month target price of MANGO at $1.75 in July 2024, but the transparency of its prediction model is limited. Historical data shows that among the 10 mainstream token predictions released by the platform in 2023, the probability of the actual price falling within the target range was only 55%, with an average deviation rate of ±18% (Coindesk retrospective analysis). For instance, the prediction of Polygon at $1.2 in Q4 2023 was predicted to have a final market price of $0.89, with an error of 34.8%. Currently, Bitget’s mango network price prediction relies on the correlation coefficient of 0.67 between the growth rate of TVL (Total Locked value) and the token price for modeling, but does not disclose the time span of the sample data and the cleaning rules.
There are significant flaws in the model methodology. Bitget claims to use the FDV/TVL ratio method, citing the Avalanche industry benchmark of 5.2 times, but ignores that MANGO’s staking inflation rate is as high as 5%, which is much higher than Avalanche’s 1.8%. On-chain data shows that the actual circulation of MANGO is only 820 million (accounting for 41% of the total), while Bitget directly uses the total of 2 billion when calculating the fully diluted valuation, resulting in an overestimation of the theoretical value by approximately 23%. In contrast, a similar model from Bloomberg Industry Research introduced a correction factor for market capitalization in circulation, compressing the 2023 Solana forecast error to ±9.5%.
External environmental variables have not been fully considered. According to the progress of the U.S. SEC lawsuit against Coinbase, 78% of PoS tokens could potentially be classified as security (Reuters reported in July), while the top five validators of MANGO control 46% of Staking rights (Staking Rewards data), having a higher legal exposure than the industry average. Meanwhile, Polkadot’s cross-chain protocol processed an average of 5.1 million transactions per day, with a transaction fee of only 0.0005 US dollars. MANGO’s cross-chain transaction volume decreased by 12% compared to the previous period to an average of 210,000 transactions per day, with a transaction fee of 0.14 US dollars. The technical competitive disadvantage was not reflected in the model weights.
The verification reliability of independent data sources is insufficient. CoinGlass’s monitoring shows that the depth of the MANGO/USDT trading pair on the Bitget exchange is only $2.1 million, and market makers’ pending orders have a $4.8 million selling wall in the $1.5 price range. On-chain risk control platform Arkham has issued an alert: 7% of the total supply (14 million tokens) will be unlocked in September, equivalent to approximately 18.2 million US dollars in selling pressure. However, Bitget’s prediction does not include such liquidity event stress tests. Referring to the Luna collapse case in 2022, the monitoring coverage rate of the centralized exchange prediction model for the abnormal address movement of Jujing is less than 30%.
The objective assessment framework suggests adopting the tripartite verification method: Bloomberg Consensus predicts a target price of $1.38 (with an error margin of ±11%), combined with the profit and loss distribution data of holders on the Santiment chain (currently 54% of addresses are in a loss-making state), and incorporates the anti-money laundering risk score of compliance agency Elliptic (the proportion of suspicious transactions on the MANGO chain is 2.1%, higher than the industry average of 1.3%). Investors should be vigilant that Bitget, as a trading service provider, has conflicts of interest – its derivatives contract funding rate is 0.018% every 8 hours, and the growth in trading volume is directly linked to the platform’s revenue. Potential motivation deviations need to be cross-verified through data from independent platforms such as Coinbase.